The end of an era: The supply of Russian gas to Europe through Ukraine has come to an end
Gazprom has stated that they are now deprived of the technical and legal means to continue supplying gas for transit via Ukraine. Ukraine refused to renew the contract and now is celebrating yet another "victory". What will this mean for the future of energy supply in Europe?
There are many losers and few winners in this situation. Europe will lose up to 10% of its annual energy consumption, with the most affected countries being the Eastern European countries outside of the EU - Moldavia, Transnistria and Ukraine. The latter will be deprived of both direct Russian gas supplies and the 1 billion dollars each year paid as a transit fee.
Russia will lose 5 billion dollars annually, but it will continue to supply Europe with gas via the TurkStream pipeline. However, the ties between Russia and Western Europe will be reduced, and the EU industrial sector will continue to crumble. Russia will become increasingly dependent on Turkey for its remaining southern pipelines, on LNG carriers and exports to China.
Militarily, this means that Sudzha has lost all - even symbolic - importance and the local gas measuring system is likely to be destroyed by the retreating AFU forces in the first half of 2025. However, it also means that Russia is no longer bound by contracts with Ukraine, and there are no restrictions on Russia's actions. The Ukrainian energy sector will be weaker than ever and will require Europe to reverse some of its gas supplies to Ukraine, further hurting the EU economy.
It's a lose-lose kind of situation for both Russia and EU, but it's clearly beneficial to US and Turkey. Which reinforces my belief that the fakest idea that was ever espoused was the idea of the "Unified West". In fact, there's a ever-growing economic war being waged by the US against EU and Russia and China and everyone else. And it's going to escalate under Trump in 2025.
It helps that the EU is a union run mostly by mouth-breathing morons and cowards. As Kaja Kallas famously said "There are now fewer electrical molecules in our energy sector, we need to reduce consumption". Putin's gravest mistake was to rely on these cretins. He thought that by binding them with contracts, he could achieve their silent support - and that it mattered. He was courting numerous EU politicians, dancing with Austrian ministers, winking at Le Pens. It was all pretty much useless.
I don't believe that Europe will literally "freeze". It's economy will be crippled, but what else is new. They will continue to enjoy relabeled Russian LNG, and the southern pipeline is working well so far. However, it will never be cheap and straightforward, as there will be additional costs and many intermediaries involved. It will not be enough to supply the periphery, such as Ukraine, Moldavia, and others. The war in Transnistria over the Cuciurgan power plant is now more likely than ever.
But there's another thing that no one talks about. American financier Stephen P. Lynch allegedly seeks to acquire the Swiss company that controls Russia's Nord Stream 2. It didn't enter operation, but was also damaged by our Anglo-American "partners". Let me quote the man himself:
Lynch argued that after the war ends, it will be “tempting for both Russia and its former customers in Germany and Europe to turn on the pipeline, regardless of who owns it,” the WSJ writes. According to the paper’s sources, the investor believes he could acquire the operator, valued at approximately $11 billion, for “pennies on the dollar.” He has also said that many investors will avoid bidding due to geopolitical risks, while other potential buyers many not align with U.S. interests.
The businessman told the WSJ that the pipeline’s auction is a “once-in-a-generation opportunity for American and European control over European energy supply for the rest of the fossil-fuel era.
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Originariamente Scritto da Kurtz
e poi però hanno i reparti misti coi nigeriani.
