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https://cepa.org/article/think-ukrai...eavy-brigades/
By Ben Hodges
The social media channels are alive with grainy footage of tanks and explosions in Southern and Eastern Ukraine. There are statements everywhere that Kyiv’s long-expected counteroffensive is underway, which is causing some excitement and trepidation. The offensive is incredibly important for Ukraine’s future.
But when assessing what’s actually happening, it’s useful to understand some key facts. There is a big difference between starting an offensive, and the main attack or main effort of the operation. The offensive has clearly started, but not I think the main attack.
When we see large, armored formations join the assault, then I think we’ll know the main attack has really begun. To date, I don’t think we’ve witnessed this concentration of several hundred tanks and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) in the attack.
A Ukrainian tank battalion normally has 31 tanks. An armored infantry battalion would have about the same number. Add in armored vehicles carrying engineers, air defense, logistics, and so on. An armored brigade would likely have three tank battalions and one or two mechanized infantry battalions. In total, then, an armored brigade is going to have 250-plus armored vehicles of different types.
I estimate that the Ukrainians have put together anywhere from seven to 12 armored brigades. Some may have only Ukrainian or captured Russian equipment, and others will have a mix of Western-provided kit.
When we see two or three of those brigades (around 500-750 armored vehicles) focused on a narrow front, it will then be possible to say that the main attack has probably started and where it’s happening. But even then, be careful. The Ukrainian General Staff will want to keep the Russians guessing about the location of the main attack for as long as possible, and they won’t be too bothered (and will probably welcome) Twitter getting it wrong.
I hope the Biden Administration will finally relent and give short-range (up to 300km or 186 miles) ground-to-ground ATACMS ballistic missiles to Ukraine. That would mark a decisive contribution to what Ukrainian forces can achieve on the ground by giving the offensive an enormous boost.
Some have dated the start of this campaign to June 4, two days before Russia’s sabotage of the Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River on June 6. That was likely the moment when General Valerii Zaluzhny, the UAF commander-in-chief, decided — in my view — that his three preconditions had been met and that he could therefore give the green light. He would have asked:
Is there enough combat power (armored brigades with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, engineers, artillery, air defense and logistics) to be able to penetrate the Russian linear defenses and achieve their assigned tasks, which probably includes cutting the “land bridge” from Russia to Crimea, and also securing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant?;
Have Russian defenses and logistics been sufficiently degraded; has the Russian rear area and transportation network been adequately disrupted; and are the Russian leadership confused enough as to the aim and timings of the UAF offensive?; and
Is the ground dry enough to support the movement of hundreds of heavy, tracked, armored vehicles?
nessuno ha obbligato i russi a prendere di testa la città quando avrebbero potuto aggirarl-
oh ci hanno provato ma non ci sono riusciti...
non lo carica più cosa era :(Scusate lascio qui e tolgo subito il disturbo
E' un bel presidente!
5800X3D - RTX 5080 - 64gb 3600mhz C16 - Gigabyte X570 Master - Cooler Master H500P Mesh
È il delirio di Conte, non dobbiamo mandare armi all'Ucraina ma visto che le stiamo mandando allora dobbiamo decidere noi e non Zelensky quando è l'ora di arrendersi
Civiltà sovietica
(occhio, non sono bellissime da vedere...)
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...l&id=526168381
DK
Conte che diceva che poiché l'Italia manda aiuti militari all'Ucraina, ha anche il diritto acquisito di mettere becco nel trattare condizioni di pace/armistizio/spartizione territori/definizione confini (tradotto: i 5S e gli altri venduti devono avere voce in capitolo).
Una scolopendra ha più etica e rettitudine morale.
Here's what you gotta do:
Get in the left lane
And make a motherfuckin' U
mioddio.
5800X3D - RTX 5080 - 64gb 3600mhz C16 - Gigabyte X570 Master - Cooler Master H500P Mesh
this
Ma MI SPIEGATE perché ce l'avete con la scolopendra????
sempre più metodi stalinianiCiviltà sovietica
(occhio, non sono bellissime da vedere...)
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...l&id=526168381
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la scolopendra ha un suo perchè nell'ambiente evolutivo, non la ravviso in quest'essere
Quando lo facevano per respingere i crucchi, allora andava bene.Civiltà sovietica
(occhio, non sono bellissime da vedere...)
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...l&id=526168381
Ah segnalato caro mio, segnalato!
Al tempo non c’era internet. E dalla parte della feccia c’eravamo noi
Howl sul vecchio forum
Eccerto, ora i nazi sono loro però
DK
Anche a me ha dato fastidio l'indicativo invece del congiuntivo
"speriamo muoia" è troppo impersonale, non esprime correttamente l'afflato tanatologico
Non hai capito.Eccerto, ora i nazi sono loro però
Anche durante la WW2 c'erano i plotoni che respingevano i "codardi", c'era il kommisario pronto con la pistola.
Ora usano la stessa tecnica dal momento che la controffensiva è partita. I nazi sono gli ucraini in questo caso
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