Considerato il livello di copium dei soliti account del Cremlino questo attacco deve essere stato devastante
With the smoke clearing the impact of the attack seems to have been modest in real terms, with only a few fires and secondaries caught on film and most of them small.
An Israeli attempt to decapitate the Iranian military leadership also appears to have largely failed, with only one reasonably confirmed senior casualty at this time - GEN Salami, commander of the IRGC since 2019. I've seen a report that he was quite ill and thus remained in his home unlike the rest of the Iranian senior leadership. Recall that Khamenei was taken to a secure location some time ago, so it's not like the Iranians didn't have warning or were complacent about getting into shelter.
Two or three people connected to the Iranian nuclear program also seem to have been assassinated, but in real terms this isn't going to affect a program that is already largely - if not entirely - complete. The Iranians don't need a lot of theory work at this point to develop a bomb if they don't already have one.
The most likely course of events over the next few days, I believe is for the Iranians to launch another large-scale missile raid on Israel and the parties to go back to staring angrily at each other.
Of note when evaluating reporting - nobody in Iran or Israel knows what an "arrival" actually sounds like. A lot of reports of explosions around various critical sites are likely sonic booms given the IRIAF is tearing holes in the sky looking for intruders at the moment. Similarly air defense missile launches were misreported as ballistics earlier tonight. Also recall that missile flares can be visible for hundreds of kilometers on clear nights in the Middle East, leading to single "packages" of missiles being reported as numerous separate strikes because people have little ability to judge the distance of lights in the sky.
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